BOKO HARAM THREAT ON ABUJA AND ENVIRONS IS REAL BUT NOT REALISTIC
Following leaked Intelligence reports from the Nigeria customs that the Islamic Insurgents, Boko Haram/ISWAP have set up camps in forests surrounding Abuja and its environs to launch multiple attacks in five different locations across the Federal Capital Territory, Eons Intelligence Security analysis posits that the terrorist threat though real is not realistic.
A scrutiny of the Nigerian Customs security report that the terrorists have reportedly set up camps in forests in Abuja and its environs- all close to urban areas with a strong military presence indicate the move is impracticable and a deviation of the sect's modus operandi.
With the armed forces' continuous bombardment of the Islamic insurgents strongholds and camps, it is not unusual that the Islamic Sect might desperately want to wreck considerable damage to instil fear, hence the need for the general public and security agencies to be vigilant.
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However, Boko Haram JAS and ISWAP units lack the environmental advantage, support network, capacity & tactic to operate camps & survive in urban areas mentioned in Abuja FCT.
"This is why Boko Haram escaped Maiduguri in 2009 to seek shelter in the deep Sambisa Forest and the Mandara Mountains.
In the ongoing asymmetric warfare scenario, it must be assumed that Boko Haram and ISWAP havé the advantage to operate active and sleeper cells with supporters and sponsors in both urban and rural environments nationally and regionally.
"But I see very little strategic and operational advantage for any unit or individuals linked to Boko Haram and ISWAP to set up operational camps in the areas mentioned within and along the fringes of the FCT - Abuja. It's not sustainable and realistic," security expert David Otto posits.
"Boko Haram and ISWAP units are limited to survival using ambush and retreat tactics on hard military and soft civilian targets. Building operational camps in locations that provide cover and camouflage - deep forest locations, mountains, Islands, lakes etc. - hence the choice of JAS and ISWAP Factions to settle for the massive terrain and deep Sambisa Forest - Mandara Mountains; porous borders of the Lake Chad axis and deep waterways in Northern Nigeria and the Tunbuns of Lake Chad.
Individual sleeper cells may be deployed for specific reconnaissance missions in rural locations like FCT Abuja or other targeted states, but the idea of establishing permanent operational camps around Abuja is a move that appears more criminal than jihadist.
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The perceived circumstances should attract an active inter-agency intelligence-led preventive and protection of people and property. Multi-level response must ensure that criminals and jihadist armed groups do not enjoy presence and control of any territory within the national boundaries.
It is easy to confuse the presence of organised criminal elements within the FCT Abuja with groups directly connected to Boko Haram/ISWAP terrorist factions. In classic asymmetric warfare, thé lines of differentiation between criminal elements and terrorist are often blurred.
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About The Author
David Otto is the Director for Stepped In – Step Out UK Ltd and a Counter Terrorism and Organised Crime Expert. He is a Certified Anti -Terrorism Specialist (CAS), a Certified Master Anti -Terrorism Specialist (CMAS) and a programme trainer with the Anti -Terrorism Accreditation Board (ATAB). Twitter @ottotgs Email: David.firstname.lastname@example.org