In Maiduguri, recent events indicate the gathering of youth in neighborhood gangs armed with knives and dangerous weapons. Targeted areas are market areas with raw cash flows, filling stations and affluent residential neighborhoods with possibility of extortion as a means of raising funds.

Impact.

Examination of the problem from an overall perspective all considerations suggest a ploy used by BH in its early days to establish cells in Maiduguri. Instructive in profiling these youth is the fact they seem not to be using drugs or alcohol. While maintaining a low profile and mingling with GF. Early reports indicated a fractionalization of the CJTF teams the basis for this remains unknown.

Contextual Analysis.

This contextual analysis aims to provide an insight into the matters arising around the reemergence of the political touts called ECOMOG. The return of the touts to the city center after they were chased out by the BH in the early days of the insurgency around 2014 for their oppressive role in the state politics at that time. This can be connected to the recent LGA elections that provided them relevance and the rise of disgruntled politicians that feel left behind by the present administration. The resistance by the CJTF is because of dissatisfaction with the status quo and grudges.

Assessment: High Risk.

The situation is highly explosive considering the tense relationship between the youth and the state surrounding the recent unpopular policies implemented by the ban on importation on Tricycles, harsh treatment of the tricycle operators that have been responsible for dissatisfaction. Other external factors are exploiting this such as the current power blackout that has increased economic hardship and reduced economic activities of markets around Monguno, Gubio axis that also provide the youth with employment centered upon the cattle trade and agricultural activities.

Recommendation

1] The lifting of the ban on the importation of tricycles

2] mapping of the CJTF teams and making them static at fixed posts with no overlap of AOR.

3] Profiling of CJTF in affiliation with GF.

4] Surveillance around areas known for political thuggery and insurgent activities

5] Fortification of GF positions in Hostile Environments around the perimeter in Borno specifically from the Mafa road towards Bama road to Giwa Barracks and Jiddari Polo area up to the Molai General Hospital located along Damboa road.

If you See something; Smell Something; Hear Something ; Think Something then SAY SOMETHING. The security services cannot win the war against insurgency IF the people living within the affected communities refuse to fight it.

David Otto – Defence and Security Specialist

Certified Master Anti – Terrorism Specialist (CMAS).

@Ottotgs

David Otto is the Director for Stepped In – Step Out UK Ltd and a Counter-Terrorism and Organised Crime Expert. He is a Certified Anti -Terrorism Specialist (CAS), a Certified Master Anti -Terrorism Specialist (CMAS) and a programme trainer with the Anti -Terrorism Accreditation Board (ATAB). Twitter @ottotgs Email: David.otto@steppedin-stepout.com.